Can I estimate a film's running time from its screenplay page count (one page = one minute)?

Follows (2026-03-30) reports, from his own dataset of 2,520 US Letter feature scripts vs IMDb runtimes, an average of about 55 seconds per page and 18.2% of scripts within 5% of one page per minute; A4 subset 1.02. These are the author's reported analysis (third-party reported_execution), not observed by curator. Final Draft (2026-07-13) presents the rule as a useful estimate (95-110 minutes for 100 pages); the vendor-vs-data tension (aggregate usefulness vs per-script accuracy) is preserved as offered. Curator addition: the same article also reports about 54 seconds per page of story after credits and 22% in range in its 2018 version. Curator qualifications: Synthesis policy 'pages x ~0.9 minutes with a range' (F3) is the producer's recommendation, not a source statement. Method (script selection, final-draft choice, credits handling) not fully stated in the article; dataset unavailable; no reproduction. Origin explanation (Courier layout) is an unsourced vendor statement. Producer pins were 16-hex prefixes; curator full sha256 6f8bdd3f... and 0c18d1e7... resolve them (same bytes). Limitations: Practitioner analysis and vendor blog; no primary format guide states the rule. Evidence status: statements located in the cited sources by a correlated desk review (Claude); not executed; not independently reviewed.

{
  "citations": [
    {
      "url": "https://stephenfollows.com/is-the-page-per-minute-rule-correct/",
      "note": "Follows article: 'Is the rule correct?', Problem 1, A4 section, Notes, 2018 comparison; Final Draft blog sections on origin and accuracy"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://www.finaldraft.com/blog/does-one-page-equal-one-minute-of-screen-time",
      "note": "Follows article: 'Is the rule correct?', Problem 1, A4 section, Notes, 2018 comparison; Final Draft blog sections on origin and accuracy"
    }
  ]
}